Economic Modelling and Forecasting

Economic Modelling and Forecasting

Economic modelling and forecasting are among the most important tools for policy making today in quantifying impacts of various policies on the economy. This course is designed to strengthen participants’ macroeconomic modelling and forecasting skills through the application of standard economic and econometric techniques. It covers fundamentals of economic theory and econometrics necessary to build a macroeconomic model that can be used for macroeconomic policy analysis and forecasting. The course presents topics from an applied angle, demonstrating techniques using economic modelling packages like E-views.

  • This course is well-suited staff of central bank research division, macroeconomic policy analysis division in ministries of finance/development/planning and statistics offices
  • The course is also relevant for economists, researchers, policy analysts, academics, commentators, development planners, government employees and any individuals dealing with issues related to macroeconomic analysis, modelling and forecasting

The course helps participants:

  • Understand the elements of economic theory and econometrics that are needed to construct a macroeconomic model
  • Strengthen macroeconomic modelling and forecasting skills
  • Build different macroeconomic models using real life practical examples
  • Understand other forecasting techniques
  • Fundaments of economic modelling
  • Quantitative modelling
  • Description of macroeconomic blocks
  • Estimation of equations in the macroeconomic blocks
  • Planning and regression analysis
  • Data collection and preparation
  • Diagnostics of time series data and testing for stationarity
  • Building a prototype model
  • Overview of forecasting and forecasting process
  • Practice of forecasting

o ARIMA and ARMA models, VARs etc

  • Evaluation of forecasts and forecasting techniques
  • Other forecasting methods
  • The failure of regression in planning and effect on policy

The training approach is highly interactive. It uses a mixture of presentations by the facilitator and by participant(s), group or individual exercises, use of case studies and role plays. These proven learning techniques enhance understanding and retention of covered issues.

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